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I always assumed Asimov's inspiration for Psychohistory was the rise of surveys (and associated statistical data analysis) for predicting election results, which was nascent in the late 1930s and early 1940s...https://twitter.com/sqcai/status/1454663492024340483 …
Most science-fiction is about taking current trends and asking, what if you extrapolate this to the extreme? If you can use statistics to predict the outcome of a critical political event before it happens, what else can you predict?
Asimov seemingly had two ideas that extrapolate from election surveys. Psychohistory asks, what if you could predict a lot more things, a lot further into the future? The short-story Franchise (1955) asks, what if you could reduce the sample size to one?https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(short_story) …
This sounds similar, but happened in real life:https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/08/03/how-the-simulmatics-corporation-invented-the-future …
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