Do you ever need to get actual users and use cases if you can just keep churning out hyped-up catchphrases, hashtags, and Twitter threads instead? I guess we'll find out eventually.
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I've seen a number of hype waves over time -- some that I jumped on, some that flopped, some that worked out. Web 2.0, smartphones, SoLoMo, 3D printers, VR, deep learning, chatbots, wearables... one thing is sure, "web3" has the lowest content-to-hype ratio of anything I've seen
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Short list of things that I was enthusiastic about very early, basically on day one: web 2.0, smartphones, DL (back when all the ML folks thought DL was a fad). Things I was cautiously optimistic about: SoLoMo, VR, early crypto (2012-2013).
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Things I was skeptical about: chatbots, wearables, 3D printers, current crypto, NFTs, web3
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We can also bring up self-driving, which was enormously hyped up from 2015 to 2017. It was always obvious that it was going to be a thing, but I thought the timing was completely wrong
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In mid-2018 I made a bet that driverless taxis wouldn't be publicly available in the bay area by mid-2022, and another bet that they would be available by late 2023. I still believe I'm on track to win both
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End of conversation
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All these previous hype cycles were driven by very limited Silicon Valley venture capital and accredited investors only. Web3 dramatically increases availability of capital and ease of access to capital, so of course results in far crazy capitalisations and so hype.
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At least web2.0 introduced legible font sizes, AJAX, and the good parts of javaScript.
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Lowest content-to-hype because now 99% of what we have are a bunch of protocols with monetary incentives that loop on top of each other, and the other 1% are true researchers looking in ways to innovate and make progress on what already exists. Noice vs Honest innovation.
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Cloud hype was pretty crazy for awhile sane with IoT. I think Twitter & pandemic putting us all online much more really amplified the ratios to even more extremes than they are.
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