At the same time, accurate predictions about the future of technology can only be useful for making bets.
It's practically impossible to make accurate predictions about the future of technology when you've already made large bets on specific future outcomes. There's no bias like self-interest bias.
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“… can only be …” can that be proven?
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also, follow the money
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Ah the old self-interest bias that is the root of all problems since the separation of I from We.
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Not making a bet is its own kind of bet, no? Seems like self-interest bias is inescapable, whether you put money down or not.
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I think in a sense this is true, like saying "inaction is a type of action" - but in theory is should leave you unbiased to any sort of future outcome in my mind?
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Exactly. That’s the reason why pondering our convictions will never cease to be helpful.
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Your bets should be the same as your predictions!
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Turn it into a ML problem?
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