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People get scammed not so much because they can't analyze a scheme on an intellectual level, but because of their personality or emotional state. Smart are often *more likely* to get scammed, because they're more confident in their own judgement. "Is it a scam?" A checklist.
1. Is there a real product/service involved, with an actual business/consumer need? What does the thing look like if you consider it from 1st principles, rather than from the lens of "smart people are into it, must be legit" or "even my neighbor is making money, must be legit"?
(scams will often try to hide their lack of practical foundations by saying they represent a "new paradigm", like "the internet in the 90s" -- everything that involves tech and hucksters must be like the internet, nevermind what the internet was actually useful for back then)
2. Are you encouraged/required to sell the thing to your friends/family? While there's sometimes an actual business need for hierarchical marketing, it's often the case that the requirement exists because *your friends/family are the product* -- without their money, no revenue.
3. Is the reward proportional to the risk? I.e. what are you arbitraging -- why would *you* be making money rather than anyone else? Investors make money by taking calculated risks and arbitraging information/insights. So, what's your unfair advantage? Why are you getting paid?
(Scams advertise risk-free rewards that are accessible to anyone -- no need to provide any particular value, information, or insight -- unlike traditional investing or VC)
Perhaps a very succinct way to put it is this: if it's a sound investment, knowledgeable actors are going to want to buy as much of it as possible. If it's a scam, knowledgeable actors are going to want *other people* to buy as much of it as possible.
You bought $doge, didn’t you?
i think smart are more doubtful in their judgement, then they deeply analyze the sources of doubt and only after that do they get confident.
in most cases, they carry a little bit of doubt even when they gain top level confidence after analysis.
I think it's very unlikely that smart people are more likely to get scammed than non-smart people. That feels like a hidden norm against people boasting about their intelligence, i.e. social leveling. It might be true that smart people get scammed more often than we think they
get scammed, though. Regardless, we'd need data to know for sure, of course.
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