these "folks" were wrong in advance, none of these things was seriously considered a huge breakthrough. Let me explain...https://twitter.com/Miles_Brundage/status/1399448341671387138 …
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Replying to @ykilcher
There is an entire genre of people (with a vested interested in hyping up AI progress) saying "AI achieved X which experts said would never happen", when, if you look closely, no actual expert was saying X would never happen and most experts were expecting it to happen imminently
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Here's one example of something I've been eyeing since ~2009 as a potential Big Deal for AI (not that I was an expert, nor am I one now): RoboCup. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RoboCup Team of autonomous robots winning the World Cup. Features embodiment, etc.
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The prediction of those who started RoboCup (experts?), at the time, was that it would be possible by ~2050. Still 30 years to go. I expect it will likely take a bit longer, though 2050 isn't too unrealistic.
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The tough part of RoboCup is its "real world" portion -- not too long ago even the small humanoid robots were not really "walking" but more like "sliding their feet" on a very smooth carpet, a far cry from a soccer pitch. But a lot can certainly happen in the next 30 years.
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The tough part of *any* AI project is the real world portion.
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I wholeheartedly agree! It's just that with robots who are supposed to physically play against humans the. real world portion does seem qualitatively different from say Poker or StarCraft :)
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Perhaps more obviously so, but not fundamentally. There is no StarCraft AI that would stay undefeated very long if random people could freely play against it. Unlike Chess or Go, the space of possibilities is diverse enough that humans would adapt to the AI after a few games.
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This is something we often forget in AI/human comparisons: the best humans at X can handle a broad range of X-related tasks & immediately adapt to further variations, while the X AI only works for a very specific, fixed definition of X. Hence why AI rarely survives the real world
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