these "folks" were wrong in advance, none of these things was seriously considered a huge breakthrough. Let me explain...https://twitter.com/Miles_Brundage/status/1399448341671387138 …
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The prediction of those who started RoboCup (experts?), at the time, was that it would be possible by ~2050. Still 30 years to go. I expect it will likely take a bit longer, though 2050 isn't too unrealistic.
When short-term expert predictions are off, it's often because of an underlying assumption that investment in a particular problem will stay constant -- a sudden burst of investment can speed up milestones with no change in underlying tech capabilities (e.g. Apollo, AlphaGo...)
