these "folks" were wrong in advance, none of these things was seriously considered a huge breakthrough. Let me explain...https://twitter.com/Miles_Brundage/status/1399448341671387138 …
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There is an entire genre of people (with a vested interested in hyping up AI progress) saying "AI achieved X which experts said would never happen", when, if you look closely, no actual expert was saying X would never happen and most experts were expecting it to happen imminently
Here's one example of something I've been eyeing since ~2009 as a potential Big Deal for AI (not that I was an expert, nor am I one now): RoboCup. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RoboCup Team of autonomous robots winning the World Cup. Features embodiment, etc.
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The prediction of those who started RoboCup (experts?), at the time, was that it would be possible by ~2050. Still 30 years to go. I expect it will likely take a bit longer, though 2050 isn't too unrealistic.
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When short-term expert predictions are off, it's often because of an underlying assumption that investment in a particular problem will stay constant -- a sudden burst of investment can speed up milestones with no change in underlying tech capabilities (e.g. Apollo, AlphaGo...)
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