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fchollet's profile
François Chollet
François Chollet
François Chollet
Verified account
@fchollet

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François CholletVerified account

@fchollet

Deep learning @google. Creator of Keras. Author of 'Deep Learning with Python'. Opinions are my own.

United States
fchollet.com
Joined August 2009

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    1. Michael Wara‏ @MichaelWWara May 27

      If I had to place a bet on this being the worst fire season ever in California, or not, my chips are shifting in a not good direction. Drought monitor from today: 26% of the state is in exceptional drought. Up from 16% last week. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20210525/20210525_ca_text.jpg …

      6 replies 21 retweets 60 likes
    2. Daniel Swain‏Verified account @Weather_West May 27
      Replying to @MichaelWWara @jtemple

      As I've been emphasizing recently, the *predictable* aspects of Fire Season 2021 (soil moisture/vegetation dryness) are as bad or worse as any observed historically. The level of landscape flammability--especially in denser brush & forests--is genuinely scary. BUT... (1/2)

      3 replies 17 retweets 86 likes
    3. Daniel Swain‏Verified account @Weather_West May 27
      Replying to @Weather_West @MichaelWWara @jtemple

      ...A big part of what makes certain fire seasons exceptionally severe (from lives lost, homes burned, & ecosystems damaged perspective) has substantial random component. Do ignitions primarily occur during extreme fire wx? Do we see many heatwaves/wind/dry lightning events? (2/3)

      4 replies 10 retweets 62 likes
    4. François Chollet‏Verified account @fchollet May 30
      Replying to @Weather_West @MichaelWWara @jtemple

      Is there a literal model linking preconditions to outcomes (complete with random factors)? Conclusions can be very different if we're talking about wf = pre + rand, or pre ** 2 + rand, or pre * rand, etc (to caricature)

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. François Chollet‏Verified account @fchollet May 30
      Replying to @fchollet @Weather_West and

      The severity of a car crash has a large random component (based on everything that happens at that moment) but because it is a sigmoid function of speed (preconditions) there is a regime in which the preconditions dominate the severity

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Daniel Swain‏Verified account @Weather_West May 30
      Replying to @fchollet @MichaelWWara @jtemple

      Broadly speaking, I think that's an apt analogy to the wildfire situation. High speed, generally, is a necessary but not sufficient precondition for a severe car crash; the same is usually true of extreme vegetation dryness and very intense fires.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. François Chollet‏Verified account @fchollet May 30
      Replying to @Weather_West @MichaelWWara @jtemple

      But that is only true at reasonable speeds, if the speed is high enough you can infer the outcome regardless of the random component (because of the sigmoid relationship). Is this the case for wildfires?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      François Chollet‏Verified account @fchollet May 30
      Replying to @fchollet @Weather_West and

      I guess we may not know if this is a "first ever" situation

      3:29 PM - 30 May 2021
      0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes

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