Quite a few people who got into deep learning in 2015-2016 were thinking at the time that human-level general intelligence was 5 years away. Anecdotally, it looks like around half of them still think it's 5 years away today
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Personally I don't like to make such predictions myself, since it would require extrapolating from a series of past milestones, and at this time we have no milestones that point in the direction of general intelligence. It would be data-free extrapolation, i.e. making things up
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What about when bots say it ?
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There is good data to extrapolate from:https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines …
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There is no theory that actually addresses how this intelligence works hence the grasping at straws.
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Assuming that there is an algorithm for human level intelligence we are just one hack away from the explosion. I agree that we don't see a clear path now. But we have the compressive power. Clip manages to capture big part of visual world and language in 2 small transformers.
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Why should we try and make machine intelligence only in reference to human intelligence? It is far from clear that it is possible, or useful, but machines nonetheless can be of great service to us in complex domains. Machine intelligence can be intelligible on its own terms.
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We don't know any other intelligence sir
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Yes. Exponentially increasing no. Of parameters can increase precision, not intelligence...
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"making things up" hmmmm
You mean like thinking... producing thought... HmmmmThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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"Data-free extrapolation" - I hope you don't mind me picking up that term and using it!
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