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Quite a few people who got into deep learning in 2015-2016 were thinking at the time that human-level general intelligence was 5 years away. Anecdotally, it looks like around half of them still think it's 5 years away today
Personally I don't like to make such predictions myself, since it would require extrapolating from a series of past milestones, and at this time we have no milestones that point in the direction of general intelligence. It would be data-free extrapolation, i.e. making things up
So... pretty much the same as fifty years ago?
Also: sixty years ago.
Cognitive autonomy remains a mirage as things stand. The experts know this.
Hasn't that been true since the seventies? General AI has always been "around the corner".
Newell thought it was "5 years away" in the 1950s
We’ll probably have something approximating agi by end of the century if we survive as a species that long.
Human level AI is an ill-defined notion. Neither do I think that human intelligence is "general". I was not of the opinion in 2015 that we will have human level AI in most domains by 2020, but I thought it will be possible between 2025 and 2030 and I still stick to that.
An iPhone is an ill defined notion too. Lossy compression is another ill-defined notion. How is human-level intelligence any more ill-defined compared to those notions? (In contrast “most domains” is indeed an ill-defined notion)
The problem is people just assume things get better (which is not true).
any examples?
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