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Of course, if the event has never happened before, that implies that your model of how it happens has never been validated in practice. You can model the uncertainty present in what you know you don't know, but you'll miss what you don't know you don't know.
But that doesn't mean your model is worthless. Surely we all have the experience of writing a large piece of code and having it work on first try.
Due to nuclear tests being banned, new designs of nuclear warheads are being developed entirely via simulations -- which works (probably?) because our model of physics is pretty reliable.
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