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An event that only happens once can have a probability (before it happens): this probability represents the uncertainty present in your model of why that event may happen. It's really a property of your model of reality, not a property of the event itself.
Of course, if the event has never happened before, that implies that your model of how it happens has never been validated in practice. You can model the uncertainty present in what you know you don't know, but you'll miss what you don't know you don't know.
But that doesn't mean your model is worthless. Surely we all have the experience of writing a large piece of code and having it work on first try.
Due to nuclear tests being banned, new designs of nuclear warheads are being developed entirely via simulations -- which works (probably?) because our model of physics is pretty reliable.
I never thought I’d see a description of statistical modelling with Donald Rumsfeld quotes, but you’ve done it my good man. Surely there’s a prize for this sort of thing from someone or some organisation. Marvellous! Oh and I love the note, I agree with your points.
Hæ hæ! Now we're getting deep
So you can’t model what you don't know you don't know. For the dumb ones like me
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