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Factors of decline are multiplicative. E.g. cultural & educational deterioration leads to an incompetent government. An incompetent government makes a pandemic much worse. A bad pandemic accelerates institutional decline
For the record, I don't think civilization will collapse in the near future (within the next 400 years). Not even as a consequence of catastrophic climate change over the next two centuries. But we will go through some pretty rough patches
Our particular civilization, as a system, features significant structural risk factors that could enable collapse, but it also has important collapse-preventing characteristics. I think the latter factors will win out
Hardships and setbacks can be catalysts of progress -- progress doesn't happen without challenges. Decline happens when we lose the ability to respond to challenges. Collapse happens when decline accelerates past a point of no return
I think the coming hardships are more likely to become catalysts of progress than triggers of collapse
The phrasing of “civilization collapse” masks the real phenomena. Things go wrong and break all the time. What makes collapse different is that people don’t rebuild afterward.
400 years? You have an idea what would happen in 400 years from now? About 400 years ago Blaise Pascal invented the adding machine. Your field, A.I. exists, under this term for 56 years. Your Google was established 23 years ago. You're confident talking about 400 years from now?
Any specific reason for the optimism regarding global warming?
"Pretty rough patches" Ha! Good one! Climate change reduces carrying capacity, which is something less than 4 billion humans (assuming even a whisper of the natural world). We're nearing 8B. Overshoot never ends well.pic.twitter.com/w3adcIALDU
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