I like Elon's phrasing for the two outcomes "Well, we figured out that success is one of the possibilities" "Well, we reralized that success is not one of the possibilities"
It's a lot more actionable to be able to call that something is likely to succeed than to call that something is likely to fail. Most new things fail -- that's the default
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Dangerous people are delusional and will anchor to believe in anything. Saying something has x likelihood of failure is epistemic humility.
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But if the risk is isolated from the population, then be as arrogant as you want.
End of conversation
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Tech industry fails all the time and it's getting worse.
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What does actionable mean here? Many said Uber would succeed. What made that ‘actionable’ and why is that good?
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