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I would go as far as saying that the particular environmental and historical circumstances of a civilization program the direction and speed of its progress in an almost deterministic way
The need to rise up to the existential challenge of climate change will likely guide the next chapter of our progress over the next few centuries
Climate change is a challenge that must be met, but it's not "existential" in the next century. But nuclear wars, weaponized pathogens, autonomous weaponry and the like--those are definitely potentially existential & will dictate progress or lack therefore in coming decades imo.
It’s interesting/ironic that our future progress will feed off our past failure. We are always fighting entropy.
Or it might be the Great Filter.
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