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The fact that a recount of 450k votes that were 70% Biden leads to a gain of 132 votes for Biden is surprising to me. Is it purely from ballot misclassification? If so, suggests that around 1 in 1000 to 1 in 3000 ballots get misclassified (assuming unbiased errors), seems v high
Definitely not anywhere near the level where it would make results unreliable in any state (by 1-2 orders of magnitude), but I'm wondering why we couldn't get exact numbers?
Some ballots may be borderline valid, having for example voting marks outside proper margin s
Now imagine Florida in 2000...
I believe that errors will be in Biden’s favor because Dems generally are not excluding ballots based on any political bias, whereas the gop can, by concentrated examples of misbehavior(being overly strict, say) in heavily dem countries, affect a modest number of ballots.
Procedures for recount differ from initial count? In WI, county boards can choose to recount by hand or tabulators, which might actually add inaccuracies if initial voting was done electronically. And recount entails verifying rejected absentee ballots were rejected properly
So it could be that previously rejected absentee ballots (leaning Biden) are counted in the recount.
The automated procedure just misses about 1 in 1000. If the ballots are manually filled (like in our state) that would not be surprising... ;-) Beats a typical deep learning model accuracy ;-)
Toxic ballot counters tossing out a few Biden votes in favor of their preferred candidate is probably where occams razor would take us...
I guess you stopped doing manual work a long time ago ;-)
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