Definitely not anywhere near the level where it would make results unreliable in any state (by 1-2 orders of magnitude), but I'm wondering why we couldn't get exact numbers?
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The fact that a recount of 450k votes that were 70% Biden leads to a gain of 132 votes for Biden is surprising to me. Is it purely from ballot misclassification? If so, suggests that around 1 in 1000 to 1 in 3000 ballots get misclassified (assuming unbiased errors), seems v high
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Begs the question whether the recount brought the original count further away from the "true" vote count.
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Every recount I know of just amplified the original result in that pool of ballots. Some ballots the machines can’t read but humans can, but unless one side is worse at filling in bubbles, it basically adds .01% to the original results.
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Seems worth comparing to similar recounts there or nearby in other election cycles, given that this was an outlier election (participation, conditions, etc)
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That’s a normal rate though according to election officials When you have humans from all walks of life filling out ballots, some of them are going to do so in a way that makes it hard for the scanners to read correctly in a batch
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I wonder how much error is introduced by the frothing demand for numbers immediately after the polls close.
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It was an undercount right? "In all, Biden gained 257 votes and Trump added 125."
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That would make more sense -- implies that they found ballots they forgot to count the first time around?
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I live in MN and observed a random audit once. The differences we observed were where the intent of the voter was clear, but the voter didn’t follow the directions. They used pencil and didn’t fill the bubble enough. Similar to the hanging chad in 2000.
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Both candidates received vote increases in the recount. My guess is that ballots that were previously discarded were able to be deciphered with more attention
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