François CholletVerified account

Don't know much about these markets, but if they aren't that responsive to the "wisdom of the crowds," then why can't one make meaningful money from betting on Biden?

These numbers are also generally not adjusted for fees meaning there's usually a bottom floor of % discrepancy that is "worth" correcting. 5-10% is common.

It's chance of a coup + chance of Biden dying + audience of prediction markets not your usual blokes. You can make money on it and I'm shorting Trump win on https://ftx.com/trade/TRUMPFEB  It's true they aren't exactly AAPL in terms of liquidity, but it's not bad.

This is the favorite-longshot bias. It's nothing to do with liquidity. Its cause has been debated for decades, in an apparent recapitulation of debates over the St Petersburg paradox. As there, the true cause may lie in the nonergodic evolution of bettors' wealth. @ole_b_peters

I think it would correct itself if run like the stock market, people will take guaranteed pennies on a dollar, but the market is limited to the first 5000 people, and the 500 diehard holdouts wont sell for less than 9c, so theres no way to take advantage of them.