You can't make any meaningful amount of money right now by noticing that Trump's probability of "winning" (overturning the election?) is much less than 9%. Hence that probability estimate won't correct itself
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Prediction markets are not liquid and thus can't reflect any kind of "wisdom of the crowds", even if there were such a thinghttps://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1327653475195514882 …
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1bil market isn’t liquid everyone
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It only accepted the first 5000 people into the market, at max $850, and the losers likely consider 10c and 0c payout to be basically the same, so laziness and sunk cost fallacy have locked it at 10% until the bookie calls it. If they opened again, it'd be sub 1%.
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I do not know when he’s going to get that through his head!
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