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The idea that everyone who can work remotely will be forced to return to crowded open offices in a year -- after 1.5 yr of effective fully-remote work -- seems far-fetched. Especially in the Bay Area, which is going to have 4 months of toxic smoke next year, and the one after
As I understand, the main productivity issue in the Covid era comes from school closures. A fully distributed workforce is not in itself an obstacle to success. To the contrary.
Even then, I find it hard to imagine universities ever returning to full in-person instruction
I would expect 2-3 different genres to emerge. Colleges with dorms and uniformly young students, as well as easy-to-reach urban colleges will go even deeper in-person, just with flipped lectures. While some colleges will start to prioritize online.
What about service-sector and public - works positions? How are you accounting for the food and beverage industries as well as entertainment and hospitality industries?
Not everyone has big spaces to do work. I share a 1 bedroom with another person and it’s difficult to both work in the same space (both need desks, monitors etc)
Alex Pentland did a lot of research on remote work and he suggests that lack of physical contact heavily impacts exchange of information. Remote is low-bandwith, functional, 'water cooler talk' essential for innovation.
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