When you're considering a system you don't understand well, it's very error prone to try to exhaustively list everything that is possible. And eliminating a given impossibility is always probabilistic. The probabilities multiply
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This relies on a reasoning chain where every link is uncertain and any wrong link would invalidate the whole. Also relies on the Sherlock Holmes principle, "once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth", which is usually wronghttps://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1305522434465038337 …
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Based on meta observations about the study itself, with no knowledge of Venus or chemistry, I would bet against the conclusion that this is life
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Or the observations are wrong, or, or, or... Many options really
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So you’re saying there’s a chance!
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Also this lovely thread about carbon monoxide in Titan’s atmosphere. Sometimes we just don't see the missing link to the more probable solution yet.https://twitter.com/PlanetDr/status/1305181092522201094 …
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"I cannot explain why this happens, therefore..."
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TLDR: They found lots of phosphine in Venus atmosphere. Making lots requires high energy.. or life. On big planets energy comes from gravity as heat & pressure. Small planets like Venus dont have enough gravity. So they think it could be life.
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A complex if-else, with a single break in the chain...
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