FiveThirtyEight will keep its prediction at 30-70 until election day, because that's where its structural incentives have it pinned.
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If you give a forecaster full freedom to tweak a model, then no matter how sophisticated the model, its output will simply reflect the incentives felt by the forecaster...
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I couldn't see any way to falsify such models. Without it, those percentages have no scientific meaning...
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The French philosopher.
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