There's nothing obvious about civilization. Under slightly different conditions, it could have never arised, or could have gotten stuck into a perpetual local minimum until extinction (e.g. no agriculture & cities, or no writing, or no ironworking...)
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I think technology and civilization - like organisms - are subject to the laws of mutation and natural selection. Technologies only need to be invented once and then propagate, mutate, and become more complex over time through these mechanics.
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yeah but if they werent invented at that time, they might have been invented again 10000 times into the future. not hard to think about bringing animals close to ur house so you dont have to hunt them for ex. and voila you have farming, this could have been invented over and over
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Even on a long enough time scale?
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Possibly, depending on ease of acquiring sustaining resources balanced against population growth. Modulating the key factors of population size and density. I think it's serious enough that I can't dismiss it as a candidate for a Great Filter.
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True, but in a world where farming/industry isn’t discovered, most people wouldn’t exist to experience it. I find it kind of inevitable, or statistically likely, that we exist in a world where civilization enables high population.
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