Even if you get the feature set 100% right, a social app is also a community and a brand -- if you don't get the right people to join at the right time, it's over
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Timing and market contribute to luck.
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Stupid question, apart from discoverability, video length, and type of content were Vine and Tiktok really that different? Was it ever a possibility for Vine to evolve into Tiktok in and of itself?
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TikTok has a secret sauce (good auto recommendations) and evolved from music-ly. There is no sign Vine was on this path.
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I think of it like this: An R0 of 0.9 and 1.1 is only a 20% difference, but it's the difference between going viral and dwindling to nothing, R0 being the basic reproduction number And one would expect R0 of a product to be some sort of normal distribution

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I dunno I've never been viral
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like the spread of a virus or religion ... I guess you read Fooled By Randomness / Taleb if not read this book (The rest of Taleb books are not at the same level) :-)
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I tried instagram, snapchat and tiktok basically for the first time all at the same time. tiktok was miles ahead in the UI for quick tinder-like skipping through content, even though it's way more complex than tinder.
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Ideas are cheap. Execution is key.
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Beware of China, you think they are nice because tiktok has market, no one hates China but I tell you if China gains world dominance, it will be tragic very well for you, China is no good to handle crucial matters that affects lots of people world wide.
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