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Remember that deaths lag new cases by 3 weeks or more. The 7-day death average is only starting to rise now -- it will climb further in the next few weeks. Wear a mask.
The notion that we should reopen schools in September -- as all metrics are at all time high & keep rising -- is irresponsible. Many people have died that didn't need to die, and if we keep ignoring the science & politicizing the crisis, many more will die that don't need to die
I'm inclined to agree
@remindmetweets in 3 weeks
Happy to. Let's save a screengrab. I'll send you a reminder in 3 weeks.pic.twitter.com/oItP0K2xd2
3 weeks based on disease progression, but certification can further delay. Houston reported one death today, someone in 40s who died on 5/16. Texas Medical Center in Houston reports 26 deaths today and 33 yesterday. TMC is not even the only hospital system in Houston.
You can build the time lag into a projection @kylamb8. https://twitter.com/kylamb8/status/1280297757648080901?s=21 …
Case mix matter since the risk isn’t evenly distributed and biases by age
https://medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-risks-of-covid-particularly-to-children-and-younger-adults-a5cbf7060c49 …
People have attempted to run 7 day lag, 14 day lag, 21 day lag. In every case, you get 7d average cases going one way and deaths going another. There is no evidence of reports by date of death rising yet.
On the contrary - there is evidence for a rise in deaths: https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1280693940128268289?s=21 …https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1280693940128268289 …
Deaths may not be as high as in the beginning but the overall number is going to go up simply because the total number of cases is going to be so high.
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