What works: 1. Universal mask wearing 2. Complete, strictly enforced lockdown until cases drop to a manageable level. No reopening until then 3. Contact tracing after reopening
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The gravity of the epidemic situation in the US can't be overstated. Exponential growth is resuming. We're going to need a serious policy chance. The good news: dozens of countries have been able to stop COVID -- we know what works. We can just do it. Too bad we didn't in March.
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We don't even need to look to other countries. New York has already provided the blueprint. And policy change won't be in effect until next year, at best. Transfer learning is the problem.
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Tried a broad, very strict lockdown in South Africa, but without barbed wire and armed guards at thresholds people still find ways to mix. Their economic priorities become emphasized, with credit repayment pressure, rent and basic expenses. Only viable route is zoned lockdowns
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It's an oscillating exponential!
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Oscillations are just the complex components of an exponential.
End of conversation
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South Korea said to be a good example of how they handled it is already seeing record numbers.
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We might be heading towards a real enactment of "Logan's Run"
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