Arguably, the 20 year period that saw the fastest rate of technological & scientific change was 1880-1900, when much of the Western world transitioned from pre-industrial to industrial. We went from no skyscrapers to 300+m towers & 100+m buildings, from 0 cars to thousands, etc.
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It is a general fact of human nature that on average people are more optimistic than warranted by their own experience, and expect more of the future than what has been happening in the past -- so I know where this is going
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I voted “about the same” and “more change” I’ve long believed we’re going to see some major biotech breakthroughs in the next decade rivaling what’s happened in computing, but covid19 drastically increases this chance IMO
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"Hardware will peak soon"... Yeah... Moores law is gonna end. It's allways gonna end in 5-10 years... Listen to Jim Keller to hear why that's not gonna happen...
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Noteworthy, wrt time, tech may:
give: dishwasher, washing machine,…
take: social media, video streaming,…
return: education, skills, growth,…
broaden: tools to expand meaningful capabilities
Too many
: tech may prevent itself further onhttps://twitter.com/trylks/status/1258430644797026305 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I voted "More change in 2020-2040" but then i thought maybe the change will be more slow because of the increasing complexity.
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You could have used the argument with "mode complexity" to extrapolate to 2000-2020, and it would have not hold.
End of conversation
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Since tech advancement in the last 40 years has been via improving Von Neumann based architectures and those are reaching the end of their S curve, I'd likely say no. However, there is a ton of growth in Biotech that may largely offset the down turn in chip improvements.
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