François CholletVerified account

The fed promised to make it rain.

we are at the point where it can't get much worse (ok it can, but). If more people can work safely with contract tracing and testing it will be much better than now. I expect it to be an unequal recovery with states like NY and California rebounding faster than Texas, Georgia.

Yes. Or else, how do you explain the best stock market rally (monthly) of a decade, in the same 30-day period where 20 million becomes jobless. "Intense optimism" is really disconnected from reality. The market has become a tool of 1% and does not reflect economics-at-large.

It seems like a desperate push to make some profits...but not something many believe in private. Almost everyone I know has said we haven't seen the worst if a second wave hits, which is pretty likely. Guess we'll see.

While I am not taking sides on this. Don't you think the nature of this drop is a bit different? even other curves show less absolute slope compared to this "step function".

Much of the Wall Street crowd is delusional- they are a few talking up a SnapBack but craftily selling into these head fake recoveries. It’s going to be a long, interesting summer as people process a 2 yr depression, not a recession.

One of my biggest fear is about the algorithmic trading: how will the algorithms react to something is not present in their "training set". Something completely new? Has been reported 80% of stock operation are managed by this "always-done-it-this-way" machines.

I suspect a bunch of this is professional forecasters applying their market forecasting techniques to epidemic data, without understanding that their models work because of implicit assumptions that might be wrong for epidemics

There is also the not so invisible had of the Fed that fuels the optimism .... in the end though Gods can help so much

It's not optimism or ignorance. It's an attempt to keep people from cashing their money out of stock and banks.