Part of the weirdness of the past month has been the intense optimism on display in finance circles. "We're past the peak", "full recovery before the election", "huge snapback incoming", etc. Reminds me of February 2020 when it was "just the flu, bro"
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I would try doing this chart on hours worked- I bet it will be much more clear- many people are omitted due to the definition of employed and unemployed. So try this on actual hours worked.
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I agree that the optimism seems irrational, but I don’t know how meaningful this chart is. Job losses in those other cases were structural; now they’re artificially mandated. They won’t all come back, but many should return much faster than in previous cycles.
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But a bunch of companies are going bankrupt
End of conversation
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Self fulfilling prophecies are a big part of macroeconomics. Good to be positive.
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During 1918-1920 pandemic market went up, as most deaths were old or have preconditions n had similar death rate as covid. Ppl didn't know viruses back then so it's easy to get herd immunity. Now 1% need to convince 99% to risk their lives to save market. https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/dashboard.aspx …
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Damn I'm scared...
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