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A better model would be presented as a set of possible actions taken by the fed govt / state govts / the public, and outcomes conditioned on these actions. This would involve actually modeling transmission and economic/social activity, rather than fitting a curve.
And don't get me started on the "cubic model" from the WH (cubic fit in Excel?) predicting 0 deaths in two weeks
As demonstrated with their actual data by @NateSilver538 ...pic.twitter.com/6lis16F2Ot
Any model using curve fitting will fail in this situation. Why fit a curve when there are SIR models that simulate the dynamics of disease spread?
Presumably, based on the cubic model, deaths will then go negative!
My model forecasts 140k deaths by early June based on total deaths, and slope of last 10 days.
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