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That's what throws me off with these models: they don't appear to acknowledge that how the future turns out is a consequence of our actions. They start from the assumption that the curve will go flat, and then they fit a curve that fits past data plus this unjustified assumption.
A better model would be presented as a set of possible actions taken by the fed govt / state govts / the public, and outcomes conditioned on these actions. This would involve actually modeling transmission and economic/social activity, rather than fitting a curve.
And don't get me started on the "cubic model" from the WH (cubic fit in Excel?) predicting 0 deaths in two weeks
Isn't that what scenario-based modeling tries to do? You consider different scenarios for government/society behavior and then predict how the disease will respond. Someone must be doing this, yes?
The pandemic behaves like an inverse self-fulfilling prophecy. If people think it will go up, it goes down. Now people seem to think it'll be ok.
It's weird that people think that when barely plateauing, you can somehow get down the other side of the curve without it costing roughly as many lives as going up the curve. That somehow there isn't full on infection going on out there.
That would only give a perception of work to more nerds just to come with an overfittet complex bullshit model with tons of assumptions in it resulting with similar predictive power or worse. But I agree this is pathetic.
That would be more difficult and would require people/modelers/policy makers to actually be competent.
Actually, there is one recently built by @cmmid_lshtm. One can see how school closures, social distancing, elderly shielding, self-isolation, and lockdowns may impact cases, hospitalizations and deaths https://cmmid.github.io/visualisations/covid-transmission-model …
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