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Perhaps it will, perhaps it won't. But it's an odd thing for a model to assume, since our future response cannot be inferred from past data. You might as well make the reverse assumption: "gradual reopenings will cause the trajectory to change course, in the wrong direction"
That's what throws me off with these models: they don't appear to acknowledge that how the future turns out is a consequence of our actions. They start from the assumption that the curve will go flat, and then they fit a curve that fits past data plus this unjustified assumption.
A better model would be presented as a set of possible actions taken by the fed govt / state govts / the public, and outcomes conditioned on these actions. This would involve actually modeling transmission and economic/social activity, rather than fitting a curve.
And don't get me started on the "cubic model" from the WH (cubic fit in Excel?) predicting 0 deaths in two weeks
These models never were about predicting future. These models are about imitating useful activity, and giving people something to chew, while they're trying to figure out wtf is going on themselves. Meaningless to even discuss, not to mention be mad about.
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