On average over the past, have things turned out better than you expected, or worse? (answering this may inform your answer to the question above)
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Meta-expectations: compared to your current expectations for the next 6 months, do you expect to end up positively surprised (things turn out better than you expect today) or negatively surprised (things turn out worse than you expect today)?
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When's the last time we had the smartest minds in the world all trying to solve the same global-scale problem at the same time? Makes me optimistic...
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can you really be surprised if you expect it
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Shouldn't I expect zero net surprise, since if I expected positive or negative surprise I'd immediately adjust my expectations?
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Perhaps not in a situation where the meta-expectation and expectation are decoupled (due to human bias)? I might expect to make $100 dollars off an investment, but I might be less surprised if I made $50 than if I made $150.
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I expect increased deaths, so more deaths wouldn't be surprising to me.
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Can’t tell if my response makes me an optimistic pessimist or pessimistic optimist
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I am always tricking myself by expecting bad things to happen and ending up surprised
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To expect a result to be better than we think is a non sense...
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My prior is that things will continue to be “bad” over the next 6 months, so any “surprises” would be “positive”.
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