All models are wrong, some are useful. Here, politically useful :)
24 hour & 2.5k dead later and we're now at 65k confirmed deaths. The UW model is still predicting 72k total deaths *by the end of the epidemic*. Reality: we'll blow past it in 5 days.https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1255937714244816896 …
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I think we will cross that mark by wednesday. And with few states reopening without any plan, this is going to get out of control. Adding to trouble is all this open up rallies.
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They have modeled US data with respect to Hubei's trajectory. The range of uncertainty is too wide to take this projection seriously.pic.twitter.com/qwARm06W9W
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It's not that simple. Many more mistaken assumptions go into these models. These should not be thought of as health models, but political models.
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Use this code by Matt Brockman to do your own models. But starting 20 days after first US deaths from C19, we are still at a net 4 day doubling rate (moving toward 5 days).https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1qWNtYj7NRZGG8QW3AplwyzWjvra_1oxU …
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gotta jack numbers up to hide that it came from the US & promote socialism for the vaccine profits of Gates and his tracking chips. Ramp'in it up as the 12,000+ Musk starlink 5G/6G massive data mining for AI satellites go up. China won't have anything on our social credit SYS!
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300 million people in the US
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Yes, but that model is pretty much made up. Their techniques are not serious research methods. This has to be modeled with empirical data. Bayesian seems to work fantastically well.
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It seems that similar teams initially start with something really broad and then keep "correcting" as they know more, but do not move away from the model that was faulty all along.
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