Prediction: In a couple of months, the US will need to do a much harsher total shutdown, which combined with testing and tracing, will do a much better job of controlling the virus. Our first try has failed to get R0 significantly below 1. We'll need a second attempt
After the start of the second wave (which many states are now in the process of engineering)
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Yes. A "couple of months" may be too soon. We might have to wait until after the election for a federal government that is willing to take the lead
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You're underestimating that we now know more about the virus. With this virus, the point isn't to get infections to 0.The point is to get deaths as close to 0 as possible and that's "easier" so long as the correct approaches are taken.
End of conversation
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Betting on a slow increase throughout the summer, which most states will try to ignore, followed by chaos when they reopen schools in the fall.
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We are stuck in the first wave. The rate of new cases in the US is holding steady. Total hospitalizations are actually increasing outside of NYC region. I'm not predicting a new wave but rather a second lockdown period after much more suffering and death
End of conversation
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