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That model is assuming a sudden, dramatic drop in the next few weeks. No empirical data that I've seen supports this hypothesis. Every expert model I've seen since mid March has seemed completely irrational
At first, you could justify it by saying, "they didn't much data to work from, so the variance was high". This is no longer the case
It provides some good perspective. We’ve been accelerating at such a crazy pace in ML, in our own bubble. Other, more established, areas have not.
I think they’re not bothering trying to craft a new model because there’s no exemplar data to build it on. Much of the country is opening up and Summer is coming on. We don’t know how that will affect infections so they’re just sticking with their baseline for now.
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