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Predicting 72k deaths in total by the end of the current wave (predicted to be in 1 month) doesn't pass an elementary smell test. We're at 62.5k right now and growing by >2000 per day. New cases at 25k-30k per day, guaranteeing deaths will stay in that range for the new few weeks
That model is assuming a sudden, dramatic drop in the next few weeks. No empirical data that I've seen supports this hypothesis. Every expert model I've seen since mid March has seemed completely irrational
At first, you could justify it by saying, "they didn't much data to work from, so the variance was high". This is no longer the case
No tests -> no new cases. Sudden, dramatic drop (in numbers) guaranteed
The crazy thing is people think deaths are exaggerated, not underreported.
This is the IHME model and supposedly the death rate slows down dramatically. I don't know what the explanation would be. Furthermore, I don't see charts for daily new cases.pic.twitter.com/jBgT38sFhw
I agree with you, but China claims otherwise
Even worse, the models can swing wildly with over the course of a few days. https://www.kaggle.com/inversion/comparing-covid19-benchmarks …pic.twitter.com/H8HGvQiX0h
Check this model https://covid19-projections.com/ from @youyanggu which use some ML to estimate the value of key parameters and take into account heavy or light social-distancing
.@fchollet any review of Matt Brockman's modeling code here would be useful. Thank you:https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1tiHt5t1QVI0W-9fClVqI-iXrIzAgQ7Re?usp=sharing …
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