That model is assuming a sudden, dramatic drop in the next few weeks. No empirical data that I've seen supports this hypothesis. Every expert model I've seen since mid March has seemed completely irrational
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Predicting 72k deaths in total by the end of the current wave (predicted to be in 1 month) doesn't pass an elementary smell test. We're at 62.5k right now and growing by >2000 per day. New cases at 25k-30k per day, guaranteeing deaths will stay in that range for the new few weeks
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At first, you could justify it by saying, "they didn't much data to work from, so the variance was high". This is no longer the case
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It's unclear to me why the death rates will all of a sudden tank for the next month. Unless there's a deliberate cover up: https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/29/florida-medical-examiners-were-releasing-coronavirus-death-data-the-state-made-them-stop/ …
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IHME uses Farr's law which is 19th century bullshit.
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The 25k infections when we are in lockdown. As states lift lockdowns, the new infection rate will increase. Even with the best case scenario of 2k deaths/day, we will have 1.25 million deaths by Nov 3rd. This may be the worst disaster in US history.
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No, the worst disaster in US history would be trump reelection, the second worst is his first election. You get to pick the third.
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On top of the fact that deaths out of hospitals are not counted and double the toll
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I sincerely can't believe you lead the AI research at google... Most of the deaths occur at the beginning, while the recovery takes longer
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South Korea and Italy curves disageee
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