(The point of this tweet is that herd immunity is not a strategy.)
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When we reach ~5 billion total cases we'll finally have herd immunity globally. We're at 3 million confirmed now, perhaps a few tens of millions in total. Almost there Just kidding, by then the virus will have mutated
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महानुभाव, क्या आप आप बुरा बोलना बन्द करेन्गे?
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more likely >100x undiagnosed cases tho?
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we won't know until we test. But where testing is done it doesn't show such a large discrepancy.
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So what should be the plan then? If you believe that, a vaccine won’t work either
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Look at HK, few days this last week without cases. Massive use of masks, selective quarantine, social distancing, ... Have a look also at Taiwan.
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No worries we have second wave to come historically thats the one with large numbers we’ll get another 30-50mil (hope not)
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1/2 might be right but: "3 million confirmed now" - this is prob a useless metric, ppl should get that the "actual number of cases" is an UNKNOWN variable (might already be blns afawn!): you can guesstimate it from the CONFIRMED DEATHS * X that you'd get from estimating mortality
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1.5/2 you can't "compute mortality" by dividing "confirmed deaths" by some number of "total cases" here, we need to do the math BACKWARDS, calculate total cases FROM deaths based on mortality from small clean data samples. Regular epidemiology math won't work here
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2/2 I'd guess that we'll come out of this thinking we need some big-data + semi-empirical-models instead of standard epidemiology math that won't work on large scale + trashy data... but don't like the consequences of this since getting that "big data" would f up privacy big time
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I think epidemiology may still have more to offer than "stick a line through it" data science. Some things Big Data can't help with...
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