https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698777296797698?s=21 …https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1252698777296797698 …
Dear medical experts: what is your estimate of how long it will take to have a COVID-19 vaccine ready for large-scale deployment? Most people seem to assume "ready by Q1 2021": is that based on solid evidence? I'll be monitoring the replies
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I follow David and I have read this thread
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and a follow up question is; can we ever claim control over this pandemic without having a vaccine ready for large-scale deployment?
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It seems to be too early to know for sure. "Like America’s top public health officials, I say that it is likely to be 18 months, even though it could be as short as nine months or closer to two years." https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation …
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Haven't been actively following the COVID19 news lately, but seems reasonable. For comparison, how long does it take for developing the annual "regular" flu vaccine? Remember reading that it's developed ~1 year in advance, and it's based on predicting/guessing the virus strain
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Not a medical expert. But there's an opinion that the possible answer is long or even never:https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/can-we-really-develop-a-safe-effective-coronavirus-vaccine …
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Like the idea human inmune system simulator! Though we may have a few hundred years to have that!
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1.5 yrs is a reasonable estimate for a first version. The development is the easier part, while testing & validation are harder to do well. Also, there will be need for a new set of vaccines periodically to keep up with mutation. Covid19 is estimated to mutate slower than 1/
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the flu. There were about 7 mutations found in U.S. strains vs Wuhan in 4 month period. This suggests about 20-30 mutations per year vs ~120 changes/yr in flu. This means that though to maximize efficacy one still needs recurrent new vaccine sets, yet one may entertain a 2/
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