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The IMHE model claims that: 1) we are past the peak of deaths in the US, 2) the descent will be as fast as the ascent. In reality, we are not past the peak, and the descent after the peak will be much slower than the ascent. #armchairepidemiologypic.twitter.com/lmtb2wNJ7J
(There will be tons of pushback on this tweet, and a month later I will be proven right... like with masks turning out to be critical, like with hydroxychloroquine turning out to be a scam, like with previous "peaks" not being peaks, etc.)
It's like they're mapping a bell curve rather than a virus.
That is *exactly* how their "model" works
Goes against the very idea of flattening the curve
Why on earth is the uncertainty higher for today than like a month from now?
Fully agree. Not sure why people think IHME model is any good. In Kaggle forecasting competitions Kagglers crush it. And I'm sure many epidemiologists have better models as well.
Author should not be attempting to forecast an unknown unknown while in the middle of it (?).
Almost like it spreads faster than the time it takes to recover
Model says it is based on Wuhan data. To get similar results one would have to implement Wuhan style measures. No western country has/will/could implement these measures. So it is pure fiction trying to apply this model to the west.
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