We were not past the peak two weeks ago (when everyone was hammering it non stop). We are not past the peak today (while everyone takes it as a given).https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1249048563008462853?s=19 …
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Every day since the pandemic started, there have been people claiming we were already past the peak. Let's be clear: we are not past the peak.pic.twitter.com/bhtbFw2DBM
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Forecasting s-curves is hard!!!
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Exponential thinking doesn’t come easy!
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How do you reconcile... 1-Cuomo's suggesting 20% of New Yorkers already have had the virus and 2-The woman who died in Santa Clara on February 6th from the virus she got via community transmission. ?
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Wouldn't these suggest that a) the virus is way more widespread than previously believed and b) the virus is way less severe than previously believed?
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Depends what peak, I thought everyone was talking about peak speed
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Regardless of where the peak is, you need to show new cases per day, not cumulative cases, since cumulative cases always increase.
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Depends on the behaviour, not a formula, can end up w several peaks of different sizes
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