for herd immunity less than 70% needs to be infected. The 70% number comes from assuming a constant R0 across population In reality varies with individual and it suffices to immunize most extreme individuals (cut tail of distribution)
2.5% to 4% of people where I live may have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1 … One way to interpret it is that COVID-19 is far more widespread than believed, which is good news. However, herd immunity is reached at 70%, so there's a lot of room for things to get worse
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70% of the edges (=connections) in the graph need to be capped (to bring average R0<1) Can be achieved with cutting 10-20% of most extreme nodes (=people)
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We found a limit of herd immunity build up in the first phase, in the conditions of the household structure of european cities to be limited at 15%.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20043109v1 …
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Keep in mind that herd immunity rely on the fact that immunity is stable. Few occurences of reinfected people seems to indicate otherwise and mutations of the virus could also make any acquired immunity obsolete (ie like the flu).
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"like always" I'd say
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Something doesn't fit here. If fatality is 0.1%, how are there 12k deaths in NYC, population 20M? Were *half* there infected 3 weeks ago (time it takes to kill you)? Non-random sample in the study? Tests too sensitive?
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I would say it’s mixed, rather than good news: Doesn’t it mean that r0 is higher than we were thinking and that we’re going to see very quick flare-ups without strict social distancing?
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Let's go outside. Let's go lick the barre du métro parisien.
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