"We are past the peak"pic.twitter.com/fv8wOEpiYt
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A cumul curve has no peak.
Ok, let me rephrase: we are growing at 30k per day, which is highest rate so far. This is what this graph shows. This is not what people mean when they say we are past the peak.
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I agree with you that daily increase curve shows no peak. Why not show that one rather than cumul? And I agree with you that http://healthdata.org model is overly optimistic ;)
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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For 0.1 and lower, it is too hard to tell if it’s still exp or linear , we need to wait a week or 2 to see the “peak”, this is when the rate turns negative.pic.twitter.com/XLKCnBTVod
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You fit a convex function, but at the peak the curve will be concave.
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I believe that given the exponential growth absolute numbers are not the right metric for ascertaining growth rate peak. That is why, as I understand, metrics like days for # of cases to double or the like are being used in Germany.
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Just show the derivatives and second order derivatives of the cumulative function. Common people can learn constant f' means no more exponential growth, and negative f'' means slowing down. It seems government always assumes people are too stupid.
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