The current level of lockdown in the US seems to be yielding linear growth for the virus (to be confirmed over the next couple of weeks). With a fairly high slope. This isn't good.
We need #TestAndTrace at scale.
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The only way out is either herd immunity or mass vaccination. Which is much further in the future.
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Test and Trace would an effective alternative to get to a progressive decrease in the number of cases. We need Test and Trace. The real question is whether the US can implement it (perhaps some states can).
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Growth in Italian cases was linear for about 2 week iirc before the decline came
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isnt the ball already out of the court for test and trace? Currently NJ/NY region is only testing people with strong symptoms. If ~78% cases are asymptomatic, reported US # may be a fraction of actual #. I think the focus needs to be on enforcing mask and glove usage.
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How do you trace when you have >300k confirmed active cases and doubtless at least that many untested cases? The only way out I see is a strict lockdown until test and trace becomes manageable. So minimum 1 month strict nationwide.
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