The current level of lockdown in the US seems to be yielding linear growth for the virus (to be confirmed over the next couple of weeks). With a fairly high slope. This isn't good.
We need #TestAndTrace at scale.
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IMO linear growth is almost inevitable, because we have a dynamic system on our hands: - Faster growth leads to tighter lockdown in the short term - Tighter lockdown leads to decreasing cases after 2 weeks, which means some people will resume activity, resulting in faster growth
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Like in many similar "exponential growth vs exponential friction" systems, linear growth is the stable point. Or rather, oscillations with a period of 1-4 weeks around linear growth.
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The only way out is either herd immunity or mass vaccination. Which is much further in the future.
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Test and Trace would an effective alternative to get to a progressive decrease in the number of cases. We need Test and Trace. The real question is whether the US can implement it (perhaps some states can).
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End of conversation
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