IMO linear growth is almost inevitable, because we have a dynamic system on our hands: - Faster growth leads to tighter lockdown in the short term - Tighter lockdown leads to decreasing cases after 2 weeks, which means some people will resume activity, resulting in faster growth
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Like in many similar "exponential growth vs exponential friction" systems, linear growth is the stable point. Or rather, oscillations with a period of 1-4 weeks around linear growth.
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The only way out is either herd immunity or mass vaccination. Which is much further in the future.
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Test and Trace would an effective alternative to get to a progressive decrease in the number of cases. We need Test and Trace. The real question is whether the US can implement it (perhaps some states can).
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What is the significance of the “high slope”? How is it “not good”?
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Slope is rate of increase in cases/deaths. Linear means constant increase in the numbers of cases/deaths, every day, the same number of new cases/deaths is added to the total. It's bad because it won't stop until everyone* is infected. *Within some margin of 100%
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Hard to know what is going on if tests aren’t being processed before the samples expire.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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The positivity rate of the tests has increased over time...
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Namaste, the unroll you asked for:
@fchollet: The current level of lockdown in the US seems to be yielding linear growth for the virus (to be confirmed… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1248023535286542336.html … Share this if you think it's interesting.
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