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(It doesn't, the stock market is extremely short-termist and tends to react to big changes long after they've already become obvious. In this case the market is likely reacting to recent "good" news about COVID-19 growth, and will be late in reacting to the upcoming recession.)https://twitter.com/cullenroche/status/1247387742599708673 …
The stock market isn't some kind of hive brain superintelligence, it's a bunch of irrational people (and algos) acting irrationally.
Emergent, yes
Need better nets at Mountain View.
The weirdest argument against this: "No, it's not irrational, it's mostly algorithmic trading anyway." – These algorithms are mostly tautologic by nature (= only looking at stock trading), and for sure aren't capable of reacting to any big economy developments.
If you think you can do better then by all means please trade and make money while improving the value of the price.
It isn't hard to find inefficiencies on the market. The hard thing is finding new inefficiencies on the market and profiting from them.
It’s also made even more erratic by the fact that individual actors have vastly different goals. Some people are seeking short term profits, others are hedging, others are seeking long term growth etc...
Hmmm.... I'd genuinely like to see how rationally you behave when you've got your life savings on the line, and you're in direct control over whether to buy/sell/hold. Easier said than done to behave rationally, let me assure you.
That's not to say people aren't behaving irrationally, they probably are, but there's a genuine reason for that irrationality, which any human is bound to also exhibit.
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