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None of the journalists, pundits and politicians who were horribly wrong about COVID-19 (some as late as mid-March) have done any introspection The same series of events could very well unfold identically next year
Imagine -- your job is to have opinions on important issues (which then inform policy). You have an extensive track record of being wrong every time it mattered. And it doesn't harm your credibility one bit, because one month ago is so far back in the past
most consumers of punditry don’t want accuracy, they just want to hear their own opinions stated with great confidence
Seems right. Big problem. Is there anything we can do about it? I'm greatly concerned
What does "introspection" look like?
I think the fact that Boris Johnson is in the ICU might help burst whatever remaining bubbles there are.
If only there were a longitudinal database to quantify such assessments.
Because you (we) don’t know for sure what the CFR really is: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-mortality-risk …
I think the industry selectively removes those that are publicly introspective and admit fallibilities that aren't already widely known. The metrics they use to judge themselves (election wins, clicks) are basically independent of what the public needs them to do. Why bother?
Pundits generally build their careers around making bad arguments about causality, and never admitting to it afterward. There’s a reason the crowd pushing miracle cures is the same one that pushes supply side economics.
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