Can I get any text or something similar which supports this tweet of yours? Thanks :)
If you run into something that seems like it couldn't possibly happen: 1) 90% of the time, it's not actually happening; the observation is wrong. Perhaps a caching or sync issue. Perhaps a measurement error. 2) 10% of the time, your entire mental model of the system is wrong.
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90% and 10% is not the final ratio. When you're new to something, it might be 50:50 and you're updating constantly, after a few years it'll be 99:1 or more.
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Agree. Was going to complain that 10% is way high, but I think you've captured it better.
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What if I run into something that contradicts this rule?
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finally I understand black cats
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Or...that’s because we should be thinking probabilistically. “Seems like it couldn’t happen” might correspond to “happens 5% of the time”, which means that *it does happen*.
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In early artificial intelligence literature this is referred to as "explaining away" see https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www-prima.imag.fr/Prima/Homepages/jlc/Courses/2016/ENSI2.SIRR/ENSI2.SIRR.S13.pdf&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwium53Du6_oAhUVhXIEHbmVD9YQFjAQegQIBhAB&usg=AOvVaw2g00FWF4on37rLRziCVnKR …
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